Tuesday, April 14, 2009

Breaking Down K2's Deal

Kellen Winslow made no bones about his desire to receive a new contract while he was in Cleveland. He subsequently got his wish after being traded to the Bucs. The Bucs made Winslow the 2nd highest paid TE in the league; only Indy's Dallas Clark (who by the way will be paid over 3 years as much as Randy Moss, $27M) has a more lucrative contract.

Winslow's new deal was a renegotiation of a contract that had 2 years ('09 & '10) remaining on it; the new contract extends this contract for 4 new years ('11 - '14). The renegotiation breaks down as follows:


- Old Money (meaning money Winslow was due to earn under his old contract over '09 & '10): $9.55M

- New Money Earned Over Old Years ('09 & '10): $2.34M
- New Money Earned Over New Years ('11 - '14): $24.21M

- TOTAL NEW MONEY: $26.55M over 4 new years ($6.64M/year)

- Total Package (Old + New Money): $9.55M + $26.55 = $36.1M over 6 years ($6.02M/year)


Guaranteed Money:

- 2009 full salary (P5) guarantee (for skill, injury, & cap): $5.71M

- 2010 full P5 guarantee (skill, injury, cap): $6.721M

- 2011 full P5 guarantee (injury only): $8.259M

Total Guaranteed for SKILL & CAP(what I would call truly guaranteed): 12.431M

Total Guaranteed for SKILL, INJURY, & CAP: $20.15M (remember $8.259M of this is not payable if they cut him for lack of skill)

Non-Guaranteed Money:

- 2012 P5: $3.3M

- 2013 P5: $4.5M

- 2014 P5: $5.5M

- 2012 Off-Season Workout Bonus: $500K

- 2013 Off-Season Workout Bonus: $500K

- 2014 Off-Season Workout Bonus: $500K

- 2012 45-man per game Roster Bonus (meaning for every game player is on the 45-man game day roster, they will earn 1/17th of bonus): totaling $550K

- 2013 45-man per game Roster Bonus: $600K

Total Non-Guaranteed Money: $15.95M

- 2011 Incentive (if player makes '09-'11 Pro Bowl AND has 90+ Receptions in each of '09-'11): $4.45M (if achieved, '12 - '14 P5's decrease by a total of 1.449M AND '12 - '14 Pro Bowl & Receptions Incentives go away)

- 2012 Pro Bowl Incentive (voids if 2011 Incentive earned): 200K

- 2013 Pro Bowl Incentive (voids if 2011 Incentive earned): 200K

- 2014 Pro Bowl Incentive (voids if 2011 Incentive earned): 200K

- 2012 Receptions Incentive (voids if 2011 Incentive earned): 800K

- 2013 Receptions Incentive (voids if 2011 Incentive earned): 800K

- 2014 Receptions Incentive (voids if 2011 Incentive earned): 800K

Maximum Amount of Incentives That Can Be Earned in '12 - '14: $3M

THEREFORE, if Winslow earns 2011 Incentive he makes an additional $1,000 because if he were to not earn the $4.45M incentive, he'd instead possibly earn $4.449M ($1.449M in P5's + $3M in incentives).


- Guaranteed Money: $20.15M

- Non-Guaranteed Money: $15.95M

- Max Incentives: $3M

- SUBTRACT $9.552M in Old Money

TOTALING: $29.55M over 4 new years (7.39M/year)

In valuing this contract, one would assume that Winslow is not going to max out his incentives; therefore, one would be inclined to value this contract as $26.55M over 4 new years ($6.64M/year). With that in mind, Winslow is 2nd behind Dallas Clark's $6.96M/year and is ahead of Tony Gonzalez's $6.25M/year.

In comparing the top tier TE's by how much they'll make over the first 2 new years of their deals, Winslow again falls in between Clark ($23.2M) and Gonzalez ($18.25M with $20.55M.

In terms of Guaranteed Money, if you include the amount guaranteed solely for Injury, Winslow has the largest Guarantee of any TE at $20.15M, followed by Clark's $20M and Gonzalez's $17.75M. However, Winslow falls in between Chris Cooley ($14M) and Jason Witten ($12M) with a guarantee of $12.431M if you don't include the amount only guaranteed for injury. $12.431M is actually a smaller guarantee than his rookie contract as the 6th pick of the '04 draft.

Given Winslow's propensity for injury over his first 5 seasons, one could question why TB felt compelled to give additional money to a player who was under contract for the next 2 seasons. One could argue that TB could've seen for at least the 2009 season what they have in Winslow from a injury, personality, and schematic point before deciding to make him the 2nd highest paid TE in football. Now that he's gotten his payday, it'll be interesting to see how the often-combustible Winslow behaves in his new locker room with a head coach who he mistook as a player when he first met him. The fact that he's already mouthing off about his former teammates in Cleveland is a bit of an ominous development, but there's no doubting that he's probably the most gifted & skilled receiving TE in the NFL when he's healthy & has his head on straight.

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